“Mundus vult decipi et decipiatur” = “The world wants to deceive and be deceived”

Here’s my commentary on the following article, which appeared in the Daily Reckoning on October 20:

Big Fat Stock Market Sell-Off

Well, it’s beginning to start all over again.

Actually, I’ve noticed the change about 2 weeks ago. Déjà Vu…many a person fails to become a thinker…just because their memory is too good. For most of 2007 and 2008 we sat in large amounts of cash while the US and international stock markets screeched towards the moon like jet fuel had suddenly been given away for free.

During that period, especially in early 2008, I started getting calls from clients (yes, I actually do answer my own phone). Just calling in to get a “realty check” as I was typically told.

Well, now it’s happening again…to the tune of about one call a day. Two calls a day will tell me we are close to the end. Clients are great contra-indicators. Sorry, no insult intended.

But talk about accuracy? I typically begin see such unadulterated greed near market tops like this. It’s almost as bad as the stark raving terror I see from clients at market bottoms.

The client who called me today reminded me that her Smith Barney account was up 20% in a month. Sound familiar? I’ve looked around and didn’t find anything up 20% in the last month, but then…what the hell do I know?

I’ve included Bill Bonner’s comments below. I like Bill’s style. Easy on the eyes, also easy on the mind. Still on point though. I found his prognosis interesting…end of the year, maybe late 1st quarter.

To me, it makes no difference. We are going to be patient. I am no longer dancing to the Wall Street Waltz, I am not joining those committing financial suicide (despite being told that suicide isn’t habit forming).

Bonner believes baby boomers need a healthy dose of realty…I agree. I am candidly surprised at the number of clients who still believe that all we need is some big government program and this will all go away.

Sorry, I am not falling for that line. As in Rome and all cultures before it, politicians practice ad captandum vulgus ad absurdum, and my response is ascend tuum.

Yes, I am still stuck in my reality. I’ve seen that anything that makes a noise is satisfactory to a crowd. Some I know will be tempted to tell me that the man who learns to face reality soon realizes how well off he was before; to Bonner’s Latin comment above in the title, I have only one response: Nihil nova sub luna! (“Nothing is new under the moon.”)

I still believe that to be clever enough to make money, one must be stupid enough to actually want it. Greed will ensure you get what you want; just not enough of it.

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